Only two real studs tonight at the point guard position tonight are Stephen Curry ($9,600) and John Wall ($10,800).
For the past 2 games, it seems like Stephen Curry has found his touch. He is priced $1,200 less than John Wall and for the past 20 games, Stephen Curry is averaging 45.92 FD points per game compared to John Wall’s 44.39. All of this information makes Curry my favorite pick at the point guard position tonight. Keep in mind, the Clippers do play decent defense against point guards and the Warriors are playing their second consecutive game tonight. I wouldn’t expect another 60 burger from chef Curry, however I do expect him to continue his hot streak. UPDATE: With Draymond ruled out tonight, this even boosts his value even more by adding an additional CourtIQ usage rate of 3.7%.
John Wall may be at a high price tonight, but he is facing the Lakers, a very poor defensive team, that’s noticeably poor guarding the point guard position. Out of Wall’s past 5 games, he has scored under 40 FDP for three of them. The remaining two, he put up 50 FDP. Although he’s been inconsistent, he absolutely has the ability to explode against a weak, young LAL team. If you’re not looking to pay up for the point guard position tonight, no worries. There are plenty of value picks in tonight’s slate.
Dennis Schroder ($6,700) has been inconsistent lately, only averaging 28 FDP per game over his last 20 games. I really think Schroder is in a great matchup tonight as I’d look to throw him in a GPP lineup, but I recommend skipping over Schroder in cash games to either go very high, or low with a value PG.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,100) looked great coming off his injury against Denver the other night, putting up a staggering 47.4 FDP. Keep in mind, Denver is one of the worst defensive teams in the league and were banged up last game. The Wizards will certainly be more of a challenge, however Russell is still a good pick in my eyes tonight for only $6,100.
For the past 20 games, Austin Rivers ($5,800) has averaged 34 minutes per game and 26.78 FDP per game. He has done a solid job in the absence of Chris Paul. Tonight he faces a fast paced Warriors team playing their second consecutive game. For $5,800, Rivers is an excellent value choice while also being in a high-paced matchup.
Do not sleep on Patrick Beverley ($5,800), he is averaging 25 FDP over his last 20 games along with 32 minutes per game. He is more of a gamble than the other value pick tonight, but don’t be afraid to give him a go tonight.
Since his last 87.1 outing, James Harden ($12,000) has disappointed to the worst degree his last two games. Scoring 31 and 27.4 FDP respectively. The Hawks play mediocre-average defense against SG’s this season, so Harden definitely has the ability to snap for a 60+ performance. It makes me nervous spending $12,000 on someone who has combined for 58.4 over his past 2 games. I would recommend spending my money elsewhere throughout the slate tonight, instead of banking on the beard.
Lou Williams ($6,500) has solidified himself as the lakers key scorer this season and it shows on the charts. Over his past 3 games, he has two 40+ FDP performances. Over his last 20 games he is averaging 32.74 FDP per game which is over 5 times his value at $6500 tonight! Easy pick right? Not so fast. The Washington Wizards have played THE BEST defense against shooting guards the last 10 games. Over those 10, Washington holds opposing shooting guards ( combined ) to 26FDP per game. When you have a hot player going against a hot defense, you have to make the choice which one comes out on top. UPDATE: With Julius Randle giving it a go tonight, this does hurt Lou Williams value.
Since we are on the topic of hot players against hot defenses, let’s take a look at Klay Thompson ($6,200) going against LAC tonight. Last night, Klay managed to score 50 FDP while also adding in 8 assists to his game. The game previous to last night, he scored 41.2. Klay is priced at $6200 tonight, and as good as the Clippers are against SGs, they aren’t as lethal as Washington. If I had to pick Williams or Klay, Klay gets my vote.
After coming back from his injury, Bradley Beal ($7,200) looked very inconsistent. However it appears as if he is picking up the pace a bit. His last 3 of 4 games he has put up anywhere from 35-39 FDP. The Lakers play mediocre defense against against Shooting guards, so if you want to pay up to $7,200 you should want Beal to score at least 33 FDP, which is certainly doable against weak defensive LAL team.
As for value plays, The last 2 value plays I’ll mention are back-court pair of JJ Redick and Jamal Crawford. Redick is priced at $4700, not too bad for a player averaging 21.24 FDP per game over his last 20 outings which is about what I project he will score tonight. If you really need to pay down for a SG to afford another must-have player you can take a gamble and play Crawford. Crawford is $4500 tonight and is averaging 18.84 ppg his last 20 games. He has crossed the 20 point mark for his last 5 of 6 games what is which he will need to do for tonight’s game if you want him to suffice.
Kawhi Leonard ($10,100): The 76ers will be without Robert Covington and Joel Embiid making them the weakest defensive team in the league. On the Spurs side, San Antonio’s second scoring option LaMarcus Aldridge will be absent for tonight’s game. I already know what you’re thinking…. This game has the recipe for a Kawhi Leonard 60+ FDP explosion! The only serious risk is the blowout factor. It’s very possible for this game to become ugly and fast. If you’re going to pick Leonard, you have to hope Philly can keep this game close. The last thing you want to see is Leonard sitting the whole 4th with 40 FDP on the boards.
Kevin Durant ($10,100) He has not hit the 50 FDP mark in 6 games, but do not let that discourage you from picking him tonight. Lately, the Clippers have not been good defending Small forwards giving up 46 FDP per game for the past 10 games to the 3 position. Klay Thompson had the hot hand last game with Curry, but tonight it can easily be the Slim Reaper turn. UPDATE: Draymond Green being ruled out tonight significantly helps Durant reach his value tonight as he, out of all the Warriors, benefits the most from this news. Without Pachulia and now Green, someone is gonna have to grab the rebounds for the team, so that boost in the rebound category definitely helps Durant tonight.
Now let’s jump down to the leverage and value plays.
Otto Porter ($6,700) He is facing the Los Angeles Lakers who rank 10th/30 defensively against Small forwards the past 10 days. For the past week or so, Porter has been inconsistent. He only scored 10.8 FDP against Boston. The next game against Atlanta he managed 44.2 and for the past two games he has scored 22.7 and 22.8 respectively. Due to his inconsistent patterns in scoring it’s a bit of a gamble, but after the 2 studs in the SF slot, there are not many safe choices if any.
The same story applies to the Rockets SF Trevor Ariza ($5,300). His last 6 games he has went back and forth from a FDP performance in the teens to the 20’s or 30’s. He scored 15.3 against Indiana, 25.8 against Sacramento, so if you’re following his pattern the past week or so, tonight does not look so good for Ariza.
Next in line is the value play Kent Bazemore ($5,00). He has scored 30+ FDP in 3 of his last 5 games and is priced at $5,000 tonight. The Rockets rank 22/30 defending the SF position so out of all the value plays at SF, Bazemore may just be the safest option.
Moral of the story in this section, if you’re not gonna pay up for both studs make sure you at least get one.
Blake Griffin ($9,200) looked like his old self last game scoring 49.1 FDP against Phoenix. And tonight he plays his in-state rival, the Golden State Warriors who rank 6th in the league against PFs. It is certainly possible for Blake Griffin to have another high scoring night with his minutes now being in the upper 30’s, but personally, I would let him prove himself over the next few games before I start paying up that price range for him. .
Paul Millsap ($8,500): Millsap hit the 70+ mark in FDP not too long ago in the 4OT thriller and people are gonna be on him because of that outlier game he had. The only problem is it took him 60 minutes to do so, and besides that game, his numbers do not look too promising as of late. On the other hand, the Rockets rank 24th in the league against PFs, so I can’t see Millsap completely laying an egg. For $8,500 you should expect no less than 39 FDP from Millsap. The last time he reached that in regulation was 1/23 against the Clippers.
Markieff Morris ($7,500) is my favorite overall pick at the PF tonight. He has crossed the 30 FDP mark his last 5 of 6 games, and the only time he failed to reach 30, he scored 28.3. He will be matched up against a not-so-healthy Julius Randle who has not been playing good basketball as of late and is coming off an illness. I fully expect Morris to hit his value tonight.
David Lee ($5,400) is playing against an extremely weak Philly team team sans Joel Embiid. Look for Lee to get a boat-load of minutes tonight as both Gasol and Aldridge are ruled out. I personally am playing Lee in all of my cash games, but this are reasons not to play him tonight if you choose to fade him. His price has caught up with his recent outburst in production and him being a starter is not certain at the moment. Bertans and Dedmon could start ahead of him, but if the Spurs insert Lee in the starting lineup, I have no regrets in firing up David Lee tonight.
Also Consider: Ersan Ilyasova ($5,700)
Deandre Jordan is the highest priced center on the list at $8,100. For the past 6 games he is consistently nearing the low 30’s in FDP and looks like a clear candidate for a fade tonight. Now with Griffin picking up the pace, Jordan’s value decreases. UPDATE: Jordan’s value actually rose with the news that Draymond Green will be out tonight. He is a target in GPP’s now that both of the Warriors big men are ruled out, but I still wouldn’t target him in cash games tonight.
Dwight Howard ($7,100): The narrative-street player of the day goes to Mr. Howard. Although he has not had a big game in quite some time, he will face off against his former Rockets team tonight who rank 26th in the league against Centers. I’ll trust Howard to outplay Clint Capella and Montrezl Harell in tonight’s game over paying up for a guy like Deandre Jordan.
Marcin Gortat ($6,700) What’s worse than being ranked26/30 in guarding opposing centers? 29/30. Seems like I’ve been saying this a lot at this point but the Lakers defense is flat out terrible. The Lakers own the 2nd to worst spot in the league in center defense. Marcin Gortat has had at least 33FDP in his last 3 games and it looks like the price has caught up to his recent outburst. Expect Gortat to keep his 33+ FDP streak alive tonight, as he faces a weak Lakers post. Gortat makes for one of my favorite plays tonight at the Center position.
Jahlil Okafor ($4,700) Simply put, without Embiid and Covington, his value sky rockets tonight. Keep in mind also that opposing big men LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol are out, which will make it a boat-load easier for Okafor to score and grab boards. Beside’s Embiid, Philly’s front-court is still packed with the likes of Nerlens Noel, Ersan Ilyasova, and Dario Saric still in his way, but for only $4700 tonight and if you’re looking to pay low for the center, this is your guy.
GPP Punts: Javale McGee, Dewayne Dedmond (If Starting)
That’s all we have today in this small 4-game slate. Hopefully all of this information helped you out so that you can take down your contests tonight! For any questions and concerns message us on twitter @SouthBeach_DFS and @Fanduel_Bomb.