Thanks to everyone who read my debut article yesterday. If you took some of my advice you probably had a nice night. Let’s get back at it on today’s 9-game slate and attempt to repeat yesterday’s success.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,100 FD / $5,900 DK): I expect Russell to be one of the highest owned players on the slate. He’s had back-to-back 40+ point fantasy games and the salary has not had a chance to catch up. I really really really want to fade him across the board as this is a perfect regression spot and was planning to do so until all the value started drying up with Denver announcing all their questionable players would play. So far, he’s hard to bypass in my initial cash roster build, unless some late scratches open things up elsewhere. Why the fade? This game opened with the highest spread on the slate at 12.5. The Lakers are on a back-to-back situation and last game of a three in four with travel. This is just Russell’s third game back after missing the previous three games (and only playing 1 minute in the game prior to that). And we all know not to trust Walton’s rotations as he could rely on the bench in this one and only play starters with minutes in the high-teens to mid-twenties. Even if Russell has a great game I don’t expect him to drop 60. On a 9-game slate, even if he drops another 40 point fantasy game, as long as you make the right pivot you will still be ok. And if he does bust, you are way ahead of the field. One argument for playing him in cash is that if he’s going to be over 50% owned, then even if he busts he doesn’t hurt you that much, as long as your other players reach/exceed value. I’m going to keep an eye out for news the rest of the day to get a gauge of where his ownership will be. If I think he’s only going to be like 20%-30% owned in cash, then I may end up fading him. He was 20% owned last night on a 4-game slate. I faded him and still cashed easily. Follow me on Twitter as I will post something closer to lock in terms of which direction I’m going. If I do end up fading in cash, I will have one hedge stack of Russell and Isaiah Thomas in GPPs because if Russell goes off then the game likely stays close and we’ll get a full run of IT2 and that 4th quarter production we’ve come to love in GPP’s.
There are two options I like at the low to mid-tier at point guard tonight, but we’ll have to pay attention to the injury news. Yogi Ferrell ($4,900 FD / $5,100 DK) is a solid cash option if Deron Williams remains out. Yogi has played 36-38 in each of his first three starts with the Mavs so I suspect we’ve already seen his ceiling, which is reason not to play him in GPPs. Darren Collison ($4,800 FD / $5,300 DK) is another intriguing option at the same price point. I expect people who look at his last two box scores to pass on him, but Garrett Temple is expected to miss this game and Ty Lawson is questionable. If Lawson gets ruled out, then Collison becomes a plug-and-play in all formats. Since Sacramento plays the late game, it’s possible we don’t have the news before lock, in which case I would reserve Collison for GPPs only. If I’m paying up a little, I really like Jeff Teague ($7,600 FD / $7,500 DK) tonight against Brooklyn or Mike Conley (DK Only) at $7,100 against Oklahoma City.
Domantas Sabonis ($3,500 FD / $3,200 DK): This is a name being mentioned a lot in DFS circles this week due to Enes Kanter being out. I can see him being somewhat popular for those going the stars and scrubs route, but I just don’t trust it, especially against the Memphis frontcourt that I usually try to avoid taking players against.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,700 FD / $3,000 DK): I’m not playing him in cash, but he offers similar upside to Sabonis and I expect him to be at much lower ownership. He has a better, high-paced matchup, against a terrible Phoenix defense.
Recap of Yesterday’s Picks:
I think it’s important to critique ourselves, both good and bad. Yesterday, I recommended fading David Lee and pivoting to Ersan Ilyasova. Lee ended up hitting value and was a fine play, but Ersan crushed it with approximately 17 more FanDuel points at only $300 higher salary. Ersan was about a third of the ownership as Lee in cash and Ersan carried lower ownership in GPPs by about 10%. I ended up using both in FanDuel cash, but only Ersan in GPPs. My second fade was Ivica Zubac and he failed to reach double digit fantasy points. I saw him 20% owned in one of my GPPs and 7% owned in cash. I recommended pivoting to Davis Bertans, Dewayne Dedmon and JaVale McGee. All three pivots hit 8x-9x on DK and 7x-9x on FD. I used all four of my pivots in the DK Quarter Arcade and placed 102/47,100. I hope you enjoyed some of my same success.