Hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl last night, which turned into an instant classic. Now let’s get back to the grind and start a new week of NBA DFS success. Here are my notes for today’s 11-game slate and top fade/pivot.
I am typically most able to work on my articles in the morning and early afternoon, which can make it difficult to accurately provide fades and pivots with so much uncertainty involving injury news. And today, as I’m working on my fades and pivots injury news is dropping like crazy and shifting my viewpoint of the entire slate. I’m going to break down a couple situations I’ll be monitoring based on the news to come out thus far followed by my top early fade and pivot.
Situations to Monitor:
We have confirmation that Robert Covington ($6,400 FD / $5,800 DK) is probable and Jahlil Okafor ($4,600 FD / $4,500 DK) is going to start for the 76ers. I really like Center tonight, both at the high end and low end so I have no interest in Okafor. I’m also not interested in Covington in cash coming off a hand injury. It’s risky because we don’t know how much it will affect his game. Pre-injury he had 50 and 40 point fantasy games, though. I want to gauge throughout the day what his ownership might be – whether people will chase those two performances or if people will stay away due to the uncertainty around his hand injury. If I think he’s going to be low-owned he may be worth a flier in GPPs.
Lavoy Allen ($3,500 FD / $3,700 DK) played a season-high 32 minutes in a spot start for Thad Young, who remains out tonight, and scored 39.7 FanDuel points on Saturday and FanDuel didn’t raise his price. Saturday was a career game for Allen, plus it was his birthday (narrative!). I think it’s highly unlikely Allen repeats that performance. And this isn’t some rookie or second year guy getting his first crack. He’s a 5-year pro who started 28 games last season and has just recently found his way into the rotation this season. I feel like his realistic range of outcomes tonight is anywhere from 5-27 fantasy points. Myles Turner missed shootaround with an illness and is now questionable for tonight. Mid-day downgrades are never a good thing and usually trend more towards doubtful than probable. If he misses, the Pacers are super thin in the frontcourt. Big Al Jefferson ($3,700 FD / $3,100 DK) should slide into the starting lineup if Turner gets ruled out. Jefferson hasn’t played 20 minutes in a game since 12/26, but he may be forced into more action tonight and even in limited minutes can exceed value. Something we need to keep an eye on is the status of Kevin Seraphin, who’s been battling some injuries for the Pacers and has missed the last 6 games. Everything I’m seeing tells me he’s close to returning, but even if he does he may be limited. The only depth behind him is Rakeem Christmas, who barely sees any action. The alternative is for the Pacers to play small and slide CJ Miles or Paul George over to the 4. I’ll be monitoring this all-day to get a gauge of where the minutes will go, as thus far this game presents us with the best value on the slate.
Norman Powell ($4,800 FD / $5,500 DK): No word yet on DeMar DeRozan’s status (still questionable), but if he gets ruled out again, I expect Powell to get another start and be a popular lower-tier option at Shooting Guard. Powell is fairly priced on FanDuel, but has failed to reach value in 3 straight games.
Jamal Crawford ($4,700 FD & DK): He offers a similar floor to Powell (single digits), but has a higher ceiling. Crawford is a streaky player that I like to ride when he’s hot, which he currently is. He’s played 30+ minutes in 5 straight and has reached value at his current salary in 5 of his last 6. And he showed his upside yesterday, scoring 37.9 FanDuel points. He is in the second game of a back-to-back, but I don’t see anything in his game logs that gives me any concern. The Clippers are playing at Toronto, who is also in the second game of a back-to-back. There’s no line in this game yet (waiting on injury news), but I expect this to be a close, competitive game between two playoff bound teams.
Recap of Saturday’s Picks:
Saturday was kind of a crazy night because almost all the games turned into blowouts, except the one with the highest spread (Warriors/Kings), which went into OT. We also had the post-lock scratches of Jahlil Okafor and Kyrie Irving, the latter of whom increased the value of LeBron James, who ended up with 32 real life points, but still failed to reach value. DeMarcus Cousins ended up being the top fantasy scorer on the night, but fading him didn’t affect my FanDuel lineups, as I went with min-priced John Henson, who reached 7x. And I was able to fit in John Wall, who exceeded 5x and was the top scorer at point guard. Anthony Davis‘s fantasy output was comparable to LeBron’s. My other fade (Frank Kaminsky) and pivots (Ilyasova, Randolph, Ibaka) were mostly a wash, as Kaminsky, Ilyasova and Randolph were all right around 5x. Ibaka busted with only 8.4 FanDuel points, but if you followed me on Twitter you’ll noticed I came off Ibaka and went with Ilyasova and Randolph.