Tonight we have a massive 12-game slate. There were a lot of Questionable tags coming into the slate that are already starting to be cleared up early in the day, but as always, new players are being listed as Questionable, changing the entire landscape of the slate. We’ll need to keep an eye on all the news for the remainder of the day to ensure we are making the optimal fades and pivots. Now let’s take a look at a couple potential fades and pivots based on the news we have so far.
Darren Collison ($5,400 FD / $5,300 DK): The Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight due to a 1-game suspension. As a result, the Kings will be one of the most targeted sources for value plays. And let’s not forget, the Kings are already thin with Omri Casspi, Rudy Gay and Garrett Temple out. FanDuel proactively bumped all the Kings’ salaries, diminishing some of the value, but I still expect them to be popular, including Darren Collison, as people will expect him to pick up a lot of the scoring slack, and looking at the RotoGrinders CourtIQ over the last 4 weeks with the 4 aforementioned players off the court, Collison (in only a 30 minute sample size) sees the highest usage increase (+6.9%), but his fantasy point production is actually flat.
Ty Lawson ($4,700 FD & DK): This is strictly a GPP pivot to get off Collison’s higher ownership down to Lawson’s lower ownership with similar upside. Lawson gets a nice 3% usage bump, but the difference is that it translates into a corresponding increase in fantasy output unlike Collison. Per 36 minutes, Lawson sees a double-digit increase in FanDuel points (in a 119 minute sample size). Last game Lawson played 35 minutes so it’s not unrealistic for him to play up to his ceiling. Even in a blowout, I think Lawson still gets at least 28 minutes. Another thing to note is that Cousins has missed 1 game previously this year, a blowout loss to the Rockets on 12/14/16. In that game Collison played 29 minutes and scored 21.3 FanDuel points and Lawson played 24 minutes and scored 21.5 FanDuel points. Gay also missed that game, but Casspi and Temple both played and started. Like I mentioned earlier, this is strictly a GPP play, as Lawson still has a floor under 20 fantasy points and is priced about $500 too high to be a cash play in my opinion.
Michael Carter-Williams ($5,000 FD & 4,700 DK): Gonna keep this once short. You’ve seen the upside he has when he starts and with the news that Butler will be ruled out and Wade is questionable, Carter-Williams makes for a safe pivot off of what will likely be the chalky Darren Collison.
Lavoy Allen ($3,900 FD / $4,000 DK): Thad Young has been ruled out already tonight, which likely means another start for Allen. People looking for value might still chase the 40 point fantasy game two games ago. No way, no how does he reach that ceiling again, probably in his entire career. Last game he scored 15.5 FanDuel points, which is more realistic of what I expect from him. The Pacers play the Cavs tonight, which is a bad matchup for Allen as he would would likely be matched up against Kevin Love. I just can’t see Allen being able to guard the perimeter. Myles Turner probably matches up better with Love, but I doubt the Pacers want to get him away from the basket and take away his block upside. More likely, the Pacers go small and put somebody like CJ Miles on Love, which means less minutes for Allen.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,600 FD / $3,500 DK): Do yourself a favor, play WCS tonight, especially on DK where he didn’t get priced up. He should see 25+ minutes and has massive upside against a fast-paced Celtics team that doesn’t rebound well. If you want an off-the-wall, low-owned GPP-only play off both Cauley-Stein and Allen, then Larry Nance ($4,300 FD / $4,200 DK) is your guy. He’s coming of two straight double-doubles, playing over 30 minutes in each and scoring 30 FanDuel points and 42.2. He has a tough matchup against the Pistons and nobody is going to be on him, which makes him the perfect GPP pivot. I am, however, going to monitor news about Julius Randle. If we get word that he’s going to get back to his 30 minutes, then that would take Nance out of play for me.
Recap of Yesterday’s Picks:
Yesterday may have been my boldest and most accurate call yet, fading Kemba Walker for Damian Lillard and it went just as I laid out. Kemba was 90% owned in cash and scored only 27.1 FanDuel points while Lillard was <10% owned and scored 46 FanDuel points. Additionally, Kemba was 73% owned in one of my GPPs and Lillard was only 14%. You definitely moved ahead of the field if you made the pivot.