My oh my, look what we have here- a rare 14 game slate! While you guys may know me for writing articles titled “Slate-Talk” and “NBA Thoughts”, I thought I would switch up the gears today and provide you plays that I believe, while cheap, will produce 5x+ value. Let’s dig into it!
Jameer Nelson |$5,300| vs MIN
We are gonna start off the article right away covering a player who is in the highest O/U game (230). Just like in the last article I mentioned, the Denver Nuggets are currently depleted with injuries from the names of Danilo Galinari, Emmanuel Mudiay, Wilson Chandler, & Darrell Arthur. With that being said, veteran Jameer Nelson has stepped in the starting lineup and has absolutely dominated value has las 4 games. In those game, he has seen minutes in the upper 30’s and has flashed 7x value. Going against the Timberwolves who have allowed 42+ FDP performances to Kyrie, Holiday, & Dragic recently, without a doubt, Nelson is in an elite spot tonight. He’s gonna be in a game that will be high paced, competitive, and in a favorable matchup, all of which makes me so confident he exceeds value tonight!
George Hill |$5,900| vs POR
Another Point Guard that could be sneaky, but worth targeting in GPP’s is George Hill. I get it, people are gonna be off of him because his game log recently is both volatile and sub-par. But, this would be a great night to target him and take advantage of his low price. If you don’t remember from the first game of the season, George Hill had a great performance with Portland with 35 FDP. Tonight, we should see the same type of game again. Some positives going Hill’s way: Up-tempo matchup for the Jazz, Rodney Hood out tonight, and a front court that takes a big hit with a Nurkic/Leonard situation. Knowing Portland, they will be focusing on Hayward most of the night leaving Hill exposed to scoring and some peripheral stats. George Hill is due for a bounce back and this is the night to target him in!
Marcus Smart |$5,800| vs PHI
Moving down to the Shooting Guard position, the one guy that is in an eye-popping matchup tonight is Marcus Smart. Once again, Marcus Smart will be heavily relied on in the Celtics offense without Avery Bradley and Jaylen Brown. Seeing minutes in the upper 35+’s the last 3 games, Smart has been a peripheral stats monster almost guaranteeing you a steal a game and a balanced stat line you hope to get in a position that most players rely on real scoring points. Going against the 76er’s makes this an exciting matchup to say the least, and with the being said, Smart makes for a great value play to look at in both contest for tonight’s big slate!
Michael Beasley |$4,900| @ BKN
It took a while to get comfortable targeting Bucks players with coach Jason Kidd at the helm, but without Jabari Parker, I have been keeping my eye on guys who have been taking the role as the “next man up” and I feel that its Michael Beasley. The former #2 pick looks to have finally found himself a home and his game log has shown it off. Beasley’s price has drastically rose to almost $5K, so one might expect that would drive people off of him. That might not be the case tonight. I think players around the industry will still be flocking over him and putting him in their lineups tonight against a sup-bar Brooklyn Nets team. While his minutes are always questionable making him very volatile at times, I still truly believe his confidence is through the roof right now and he will be getting a lot of looks. Simply put, Michael Beasley is in a great spot tonight.
Dewayne Dedmon |$4,300| @ ORL
Finally, we have another example of a guy, who, like Beasley, has found a home and has shown confidence his past 5 games. Dedmon has been a menace on the boards recently averaging 10.3 rebounds in the month alone in February. He has showed to flash 8x value when he gets the proper matchup and can score along with rebounding. Going against Vucevic is always a plus matchup, but now without defensive blocking threat Serge Ibaka on the team anymore, I expect Dedmon to excel and produce 5x value tonight. He is safe in all formats as and he will allow you to pay up for other studs tonight!
Really consider Aaron Gordon if coach Frank Vogel shares that he will start at the 4 tonight instead of the 3 without Ibaka. He has shown in the past (in college) and when he gets the opportunity in Orlando, he fits better at that slot, so if he is confirmed at the 4, you best believe he makes for an elite value play tonight.
Kelly Olynk also makes for an interesting GPP value target tonight as his minutes has been increasing game by game and he’s going up against a weak 76er’s team with an opportunity of facing Jahlil Okafor (+ matchup) at the paint.
Power Forward is really confusing tonight making it hard to comfortably write about a value play on that decision. With Nerlens Noel & Dario Saric, I’m a little off of them now that Jahlil Okafor is back with the team. He could take minutes away from them thus decreasing their value, or it could have no affect at all.
Ownership will be on Frank Kaminsky as well, but my reasoning for being a little off of him is that this is a down-paced matchup with the Raptors, and Serge Ibaka could make his debut in tonight’s lineup. I could honestly see Kaminsky getting in foul trouble as well since both DeRozan and Lowry love to attack the paint and look to draw fouls. While I’m not saying Kaminsky is an easy fade as he makes for a great value play, but he definitely has some risks around him tonight along with extreme potential as well.